A barn that once housed tens of thousands of birds but is now empty has a subtly heartbreaking quality. No workers on morning shifts, no noise, and no feed bills. Just the remnants of a company that had been in operation until the day the veterinary officials showed up and gave the order to evacuate. That time has already arrived—more than once—for numerous chicken farmers in Europe, the US, Asia, and other regions.
It is truly difficult to comprehend the magnitude of the current avian influenza outbreak. Recent statistics show that the virus has killed or culled over 160 million domestic birds globally. Since early 2022, over 166 million birds have been killed in the United States alone; in the first few weeks of 2025, 30 million egg-laying hens were eliminated. In just three months, the UK killed almost 1.8 million captive and farmed birds. In one recent outbreak, Nepal reported that almost 600,000 birds were killed. These are not isolated occurrences. This is a persistent, ongoing economic injury.
The farmers bear the brunt of the direct financial harm. On its best day, a poultry operation is a tight-margin enterprise. Culling is prompt and required when an outbreak is confirmed. In nations like the US and the UK, compensation plans are in place, but they rarely cover everything and payments are rarely made quickly. Even after losing their flocks, producers in Nepal are facing severe financial hardship due to compensation delays. It takes days for the birds to vanish. If there is a financial recovery at all, it takes years.
It’s also evident—though possibly underestimated—how this spreads. There will be fewer eggs if there are fewer laying hens. Prices on grocery shelves rise when there are fewer eggs available. Egg prices have risen to all-time highs for American consumers, and it’s difficult to separate that from the loss of tens of millions of hens. An early look at what supply shocks of this magnitude can do to daily food costs was provided by the 2015 U.S. outbreak, which led to the culling of 50 million birds. The current wave is bigger and lasts longer.
At the very least, the culling techniques have created an additional layer of controversy that calls into question the industry’s level of readiness. In early 2022, ventilation shutdown—a procedure that involves cutting off airflow and raising temperatures to fatal levels inside sealed sheds—accounted for nearly 73% of culls in the United States. Employees have given a somber account of it. The approach has been categorically rejected by European veterinary associations. Nobody seems totally at ease with the idea that the infrastructure and ethics of the response have not kept up with the speed and scope of outbreaks.
It’s difficult to ignore how much of the burden falls on individual farming families as you watch all of this play out. Lucy Sanderson, a farmer from North Yorkshire in the UK, said she sobbed for a week following the cull order. She had to lay off employees. In a matter of days, her daily routine, her income, and her sense of purpose were all upended. Although it is part of the actual cost, the human aspect is not included in the economic data. The chairman of the NFU’s poultry board described it as a “huge emotional and financial strain on farming families,” which is true in theory but somewhat deceptive.
The wider economic consequences are still spreading in ways that are still becoming apparent. The virus is spreading to new areas through wild bird migration patterns. Concerns about biodiversity are growing. Over 6,400 outbreaks in 34 European countries have been reported, with over 5,600 cases in wild birds alone. Planning is extremely challenging for anyone whose livelihood depends on a flock surviving the upcoming season because there is still no clear conclusion to this tale. This uncertainty is more significant than any one statistic.
The answer was supposed to be containment. It might be the appropriate one. However, the hundreds of millions of birds that have already perished show how expensive this specific method of disease control is, both in terms of money and livelihoods as well as something more difficult to measure.
